By Tom
Cardinal second baseman Nolan Gorman is definitely going through it right now. The 2018 first-rounder has seen his playing time dwindle in the last two weeks, as gold-glove winning utility man Brendan Donovan has been slotted in his stead in 9 of the last 11 games. Gorman, a lineup mainstay all season, saw his playing time cut during this span as the Redbirds have faced 5 left handed pitchers. However, as the Cardinals sought to salvage a split against the rival Cubs, Gorman was kept on the bench against right hander Javier Assad. He didn’t enter the game until the 9th inning when he was used as a defensive sub for pinch-hitter Brandon Crawford. He got the start against Jameson Taillon and proceeded to go 0-4 with a strikeout.
It’s been this kind of season for Gorman, one of very few highs and many many lows. Right now, he is mired in another statistical avalanche. Despite hitting .262 in July—a highlight following a June where he went 14 for 99 with 42 strikeouts—Gorman has been 6 for his last 46 with two homers, 3 walks, and 24 strikeouts. It is worth noting that that .262 average is also a bit misleading, as 11 of his 17 hits for the month occurred between July 2nd and July 8th.
This is a path the Cardinals, and fans, knew Gorman would venture down all too often, but expected results with his prodigious power. Gorman has mashed 19 homers on the year, leading the team until Alec Burleson caught him a couple days ago. Gorman’s power and bat speed have come at a significant cost for the Redbirds, one that they seem less willing to pay. Gorman has struck out in a staggering 37.9% of his plate appearances this year. His 141 Ks are 2nd in the National League behind only Elly De La Cruz’s 143–and despite Cruz’s 200 K pace, he offsets that with a lead-leaguing 55 stolen bases and an .820 OPS. Gorman has neither the speed, dynamism, or hitter-hitter friendly ballpark that EDLC has. He is strictly running off his raw power game.
Gorman was demoted for similar inconsistencies his rookie year. In 2023 he locked down 2nd base and slugged his way to 27 homers and an .805 OPS. If not for a nagging back and hamstring he would have cleared 30 bombs easily.
To better his durability—and defense at 2nd base, a position he’s only been playing since 2021–Gorman dropped 10 pounds. The power remained and there were hopes among the Cardinal faithful that he’d take a huge step forward defensively. Gorman transitioned from 3rd to 2nd starting in 2021, and his rookie year saw him post—expectedly—abysmal numbers (-12 OAA, -5 DRS). In ‘22 he budded into a league average middle infielder and at the ripe age of 23, leaner and meaner, the expectation for Gorman this year would be that he’d take blossom into a star.
Well none of that shit happened.
As mentioned previously, Gorman’s bat has been mostly absent for the year. As of writing this, he’s hitting below the Mendoza Line (.199) AGAIN, his slugging percentage is a pedestrian .408, and he’s getting on base 41 points fewer than the average big leaguer. His .679 OPS is dwarfed by guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa—who has a higher slugging too—and Luis Arraez. Gorman posted a 118 wRC+ last season, and this year he’s at 91. At this point, it will require a miracle for him to finish league average.
Defensively he’s been just as awful. He has a -7 OAA (Outs Above Average) and -4 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). By Baseball Savant’s Field Run Value, the only 2nd baseman having a worse year than him with the glove is Jorge Polanco. Looking at Gorman’s Savant page invokes a sense of dread.
Okay, maybe disappointment. I mean did you really look at it? Gorman’s batted ball metrics remain supreme. He swings the bat hard and hits the ball hard. A 90 percentile LA Sweet-Spot% is a lot of words that translates too: he hits the shit out of the ball, on the button, and at a desired plane to be home runs or doubles. Over half of his batted balls are in the air, and very few (16.8%) go to the opposite field. He hits the ball on the barrel and his expected Slugging (xSLG) suggests he’s been a tad bit unfortunate on some of those fly balls—likely from Busch Stadium’s deep confines.
Some points of regression, in comparison to last year, show that Gorman is pulling the ball less (46.5%-39.6%) and hitting more balls to center field (43.7%). His line drive rate is down by nearly 6 points as well, and his HardHit% (balls leaving the bat at 95+ mph) is down by 10. However, these regressions are not entirely to blame for a player who has seen his production fall off a fucking cliff.
Perhaps the most significant factor in Gorman’s hitting regression has been the way opposing pitchers attack him and his inability to make adjustments. Pitchers are attacking him more in the zone than in the past (51.9%). Gorman has struggled to capitalize on in-zone pitches, making contact on only 74.1% of his swings (compare this to Elly De La Cruz, who has struck out more but makes contact on in-zone pitches 5 points higher than Gorman). His swing decisions have also cost him, as Gorman chases about 30% of his pitches outside the strike zone, where his 38.5% out-of-the-zone contact rate usually results at him flailing (compare this to ELDC chasing only 26.7% of the time, or fellow Cardinal-in-hitting-Hell Paul Goldschmidt, who will likely join Gorman on the 200 K bus, but makes more contact on pitches out of the zone and in the zone than his teammate).
Gorman has significant holes in his swing. He’s seen 1,480 pitches this year, he’s swung and missed on nearly 20% of them. Gorman’s heat maps show that the only place he’s effective as a hitter is anything cock-high and center cut. Opposing pitchers routinely attack him inside and above or below his hands—this strategy, especially up-and-in, has been consistent since Gorman entered the MLB. On the 500 pitches above the belt, Gorman has swung at 209 of them and whiffed on 98–a 46.8% rate. If you look at his strikeout%, Gorman Ks somewhere between 39% and 76% on pitches in those quadrants.
If it’s not up and in, pitchers get Gorman to expand the zone below the knees. His 84 swings on pitches down and in out of the strike zone—what a phrase—are the 2nd most to his 85 swings on inside and thigh-high. Gorman missed 49 of those 84 swings for a 58% Whiff rate and a 47% K rate. Perhaps more alarming is the 74% Whiff and 81% K rate on pitches down and away below the strike zone. Of his 141 strikeouts, 54 of them have come on pitches in these two areas.
These heat maps show where his success lies and where he constantly tries to attack the ball. Gorman has punished pitchers who leave pitches in the heart-of-the-zone or anything inside at his thighs. 11 of his 19 homers have come in that middle stripe, along with 31 of his 67 hits. He has hit 2 home runs on pitches in the top third or above of the zone, and 6 on pitches in the bottom or below. Gorman is 31 for 87 in that stripe. He is 36 for 249 everywhere else.
Pitch-type has also played into Gorman’s absent bat…well one pitch that is. Last year he batted .254 and slugged .465 on four-seam fastballs, this year it’s .141 and .323. On fastballs in general, Gorman hit .280 in ‘23 with 16 homers. This season he’s batting .201 with 11 bombs. Despite hitting offspeed better than last season, it’s been the fastball, and strictly the four-seamer that has plagued Gorman’s 2024. In 2023 he had an .859 OPS on four-seamers, this year it’s .569. Last year he had a 147 wRC+ on four-seamers, but this year he’s down to a 71.
The results are the results. Gorman has always been feast or famine when it comes to hitting. He may very well get hot and slug his way out of this, but his dry spells this season have been more frequent and longer lasting. Historically, his rookie campaign featured some dips in production—something you’d expect with a rookie hitter—with him posting a .618 OPS in June of that year. If you look at his monthly splits, Nolan has always struggled to hit in June—he has a career .536 OPS for the month. June is usually his great obstacle. In 2023 he entered June with a .915 OPS and ended it 135 points lower—he went 10 for 70 and slashed .143/.211/.229. In July he got red-hot and after that struggled with injury. The peaks and valleys were there, obviously, but Gorman’s worst stretches could be offset by months where he mashed like vintage Pujols.
In 2024 Gorman started slow with a .624 OPS through April. He was batting .169 at one point following an 0 for 17 stretch. In May he exploded because he’s Nolan Gorman. He swatted 6 homers and slashed .242/.359/.561. He started June hot too, bashing four homers and driving in 6 runs through his first four games, and then after that completely disappeared. From June 5th on, Gorman recorded 7 hits in 84 at-bats. At the start of July he recorded his first multi-hit game in nearly a month and showed signs of going on another run. Following a 6-0 win against the Nationals on July 8th, he raised his average to .210 and his OPS to .709, the highest it had been in 20 days. Following that game, he slipped into another weeks-long slump where he finds himself still there and us waiting. He is currently hitless in his last 15 at-bats.
Gorman’s struggles are one of many issues plaguing the 2024 Cardinals, who have somehow weathered a battered and woeful offense to be in the playoff mix. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who are making MVP money, are in the midst of the worst seasons of their careers. Gorman’s advantage is that he’s young—24–and has shown he can hit at this level, but he’s not entrenched by a MLB contract like his co-stars are. Managerial patience is waning thin. Brendan Donovan has been the primary second baseman since July 24th—as of writing this, he’s not listed in tonight’s lineup against the Cubs. If you take out his May, Gorman has gone 51 for 270–a .188 average. His league average walk% hasn’t bridged the chasm between the times he gets on base, and the games-long stretches where he pops or strikes out. The risk and reward of his bat has turned into a liability, and the same challenges he’s faced since he entered the league have remained. Opposing pitchers haven’t felt the need to make an adjustment, and Nolan Gorman hasn’t given any reason to think different.
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