By Tom
It’s that time of the year again, folks! The time when I stop playing Stardew Valley and crawl out of my depression hovel to deliver you empty promises and third-degree hot takes!
The lion’s share of this piece will cover the Cardinals, including some bold predictions from me and the fellas (Josh, Ryan, and Nik). But per the rules of engagement, I feel it’s completely necessary to offer my wild-ass opinions on how the Detroit Tigers are primed for a dynastic run. I did…poorly in some of these predictions last year. My worst takes being the Rangers being mid, the Orioles being a year away, the Padres winning the NL West, the White Sox winning the AL Central, and the Cardinals winning between 88-93 games.
You shouldn’t trust me, but here you are little pigs. You’re filthy, you reek. And I love you for it.
Anyway let’s get this over with.
PROJECTIONS
I really should expand this into some kind of video series. I have ideas and DREAMS. I wouldn’t dare make a serious preview piece–this one is teetering far enough as it is–but something completely insane. I’m talking baseball conspiracy iceberg shit, and the top of my iceberg is that Alex Anthopolous has been huffing that sweet sweet melange to become the most spice’d out GM in the big leagues–of course the bottom of that iceberg being that he is in fact a lizard person who has been sending immigrants to scare republicans.
The Braves hit a bajillion home runs last year, won over 100 games, and got a history-making 40-70 season out of their MVP right fielder. They then got emasculated by the Phillies in 4 games and spent the rest of the offseason bitching about getting time off for being so good and how many DUIs would it take for Marcell Ozuna to drive back to St. Louis. This team is the whiniest group of middle class NIMBYs in the league. If they aren’t pissing and shitting themselves–in that order–about playoff format they’re filling their diapers over the stupid-ass chop. I blame the rest of the NL East for this behavior too. Phillies fans own not only the Braves but diabetes and alcoholism, and if they weren’t too busy falling gut first down an elevator shaft, they might have had the wherewithal to burn their shitty city down over the REVOCATION OF DOLLAR DOGS. The only thing worse than that is whatever Eric Adams hasn’t killed off in his war on decency–and poor people–are Mets fans. At some point this country is going to have to have an honest and serious conversation on if we can survive without Queens. The Marlins and Nationals are just vibing, who cares about them. The Marlins overperformed by my standards, and they’re elite young pitching is dropping like flies. I don’t think lightning is striking twice in Miami–unless of course it’s man-made lightning which the great state of Florida will use to strike a gay bar or a public school teacher using they/them pronouns.
Fuck the Braves, they’re going to win the NL East. The Phillies will take a wildcard and the rest of the division wallows between 70-82 wins.
The NL West is going to be those fucking Dodgers again, and they’re going to win at least 100 games again. I hate the Dodgers, they’re a well-run organization. They get Ohtani, Yamamoto, Freeman, Betts and if Jesus Christ was real they’d probably get him too and have Him selling designer branded sandals or some shit. There’s the controversy-cloud hanging over LA, because Shohei Ohtani definitely did not help his best friend with his gambling addiction–which I don’t really care about, baseball is enveloped in DraftKings and FanDuel betting that what’s the point in being surprised anymore?
Ohtani will likely blast 40 homers and barely say anything to the media. Freddie Freeman will post a .900 OPS and continue solidifying himself as a hall of famer. Mookie Betts will play all 9 positions in a game, Tyler Glasnow will suffer a new injury no one has heard of–while no-hitting the Rockies–and Blake Treinen will return just in time to be indicted for killing a cop at Jan 6.
I initially had the Giants to take 2nd in the division and a wildcard but LATE-BREAKING NEWS the Arizona Diamondbacks just signed Jordan Montgomery to a one-year $25 million deal with a 2nd year vesting option. What a dogshit offseason for Boras clients, who deserved better deals than this shit. If my dick got hard off collusion it would be making these XL sweatpants into…XXL? Anyway, the Dbacks–despite their owner being the evil Ken Kendrick–made some savvy offseason signings (Randal Grichuk, Joc Pederson, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and a couple of big ones (Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery). They’re going to get the final wildcard slot right behind the Giants. I can’t count out the Padres, so if either of those teams stumble they’ll be there to secure the bag. The Rockies are going to languish somewhere between a 65-win and a 100-loss season again as Bud Black contemplates seppuku.
In the American League East it’s going to be the Orioles and their revamped starting corps, who will be without Kyle Bradish as he guesses if he’ll need Tommy John–I’m just gonna assume the worst when it comes to a pitcher’s UCL. Corbin Burnes will be a top-5 Cy Young vote getter if he pitches all year–thanks to his star catcher and of course WALL-timore. Adley Rutschman is my dark horse–I guess we can call him that–for AL MVP. The Orioles ate ungodly buckets of shit the past few years but took the next step two years ago and a giant leap last year. They’ll be a 95+ win team even with Toronto and Tampa breathing down their necks. Also what better way to commemorate the death of their former evil owner than to put together a super-season after he’s gone–as with every sports owner in America, rest in piss Peter Angelos.
The Blue Jays will finish second–and arguably first if Baltimore stumbles–and hopefully top 5 in the AL in attendance again. I’m assuming they won’t this year considering half the city of Toronto killed themselves during the Ohtani sweepstakes–at least one can hope. The Rays will gay bash their way to a wildcard finish as owner Stuart Sternberg drinks a child’s blood over the site where their new stadium will go. That ritualistic murder will cost more than the Rays payroll. Hey speaking of kids, um…ya know, we don’t need another Wander Franco joke the more I think about it.
Fuck the Red Sox they’ll finish last and we hope they die.
The American League will see either the Tigers or Twins win it. We don’t know who. The Twins seem reasonably poised to dominate the shittiest division in baseball, but the Tigers have young and electric pitching with the returning Tarik Skubal and Jackson Jobe lurking. Jack Flaherty looked like Jack Flaherty in Spring–touching 97 and punching out 26 in 18 innings. Kenta Maeda was one of the pitchers I wished the Cardinals took a flier on in the offseason and Casey Mize is returning to anchor a roster that will have Miguel Cabrera’s contract off the books this season. They only have one problem and that’s Javier Baez, whom I’ve always thought was very volatile–the bad kind. It’s sad seeing Javy shit himself like this. Spencer Torkelson will hit 30 bombs and post an .800 OPS, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene will combine for 6.0 fWAR, and Gio Urshela will make an all-star team.
It sucks because if I’m picking the Tigers as my hot take I’m essentially saying no one else in the AL Central will make the playoffs. The only team that can contend with them are the Twins. They’ll be good. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won it either. The AL Central, like the NL Central, will be won by a team with less than 90 wins. The Royals will be a divisional wildcard–in the same way I saw the Cubs last year–but I don’t see them getting past Detroit and Minny. Hell, it’s up for debate if they can get past the Guardians. The White Sox will die in oblivion and Jerry Reinsdorf is going to Hell.
The AL West will be won by the Astros. Or Rangers. One of those two are getting the division again and taking a wildcard spot. The Astros remain King of Shit Mountain until someone can knock them off–very likely Texas, who bounced Houston in the LCS after losing the division to them last minute. I want to believe in the Mariners, I really do. They’re my team away from my team. But these are the Mariners, who are run by weirdos like Jerry DiPoto who say weird shit like this and wonder why anyone would want to beat him to death with jumper cables. Seattle is going to do Seattle things–get off to a god-awful start, probably like 21-29 and then win 30 of their next 40 games, hold the wildcard or be a game out of the division, and then hopelessly shit their pants down the stretch as the Rays finish ahead of them. The Angels will lose 90 games, and the Athletics probably 100. John Fisher should be forced to sell the team and guillotine’d at Fruitvale Station. We’ll talk about this later, either on the pod or in writing, but Fisher’s Athletics have no imagination or future for this team. Whether it be in Vegas or Sacramento or Oakland, they have no idea where they’ll be playing in a couple years. Oakland fans deserve every bit of metaphorical blood and wealth from Fisher and his ownership.
NL CENTRAL
Any team can win this division minus…well.
The Brewers are my team least likely to win it. Willy Adames has regressed the last two seasons–to be fair, he lit shit up in Spring with a 1.178 OPS–there’s no more Corbin Burnes, and no Devin Williams for the first couple of months. Craig Counsell jumped ship to manage Chicago. Last season the Brewers were second-to-last in OPS, but first in team ERA. I would say their offense is not that much better and their pitching is definitely worse. The highlight to their offseason was signing power-hitter Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL. He swatted four bombs and posted an OPS north of .800 despite hitting below the Mendoza line during the Spring. The Brewers are gonna be reliant on Christian Yelich to replicate last year and for a rotation that features Wade Miley–he was good in ‘23–Jakob Junis, Colin Rhea, and DL Hall. A lot of uncertainty or possible meh in that corps. They’re led by Freddy Peralta who is awesome but also has a history of so-so health. Losing Brandon Woodruff for the year is devastating, but the Brewers have always done a lot with very little. Their bullpen was ranked 6th in projections before Williams’s injury, with the rotation sitting at 18th. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Milwaukee competing for the top spot and getting a 40 homer campaign out of Hoskins–or Gary Sanchez–and 45+ saves out of Joel Payamps. I hate them so much.
It’s kind of the problem with the NL Central. Any of these teams can win it. The competition is that shitty. The Pirates have a respectable lineup that gives me 2014 vibes. Top-100 prospect Henry Davis is here and will get a full season, big Rowdy Tellez had a terrible 2023 but also smacked 35 bombs in ‘22; the Pirates just need him not to post a sub .700 OPS. Oneil Cruz is back and healthy and will probably be awesome and Ke’Bryan Hayes batted over .400 in Spring and won a gold glove last year–imagine the step he takes if he plays in 140+ games. They have good vibes and leadership in Andrew McCutchen and added defensive wizard Michael A. Taylor–someone the Cards should have gotten–and re-signed Bryan Reynolds. Mitch Keller is going to be good and they have veteran inning-eaters in Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Their number 3 prospect, Jared Jones, took the non-roster invite and pitched 16 scoreless innings in Spring. I don’t know who Bailey Falter is, but his name sounds like a cartoon lawyer so I’ll just assume he’ll be the Pirates’s designated 85 ERA+ guy.
Even though the Pirates spent the offseason signing and acquiring the worst human beings in baseball for their pitching staff–Aroldis Chapman is on the roster, and Domingo German signed a minor league contract–I am surprised the Pirates came out publicly against signing Trevor Bauer, but wouldn’t be surprised if they went for a more palatable guy like Adolf Hitler’s ghost. Problematics ™ aside, the Pirates have a pretty impressive bullpen. Fangraphs projects them to have the 4th best.
PECOTA has the Buccos finishing 71-91, but I think they’ll be closer than that. They don’t need a lot to go right for them to beat that win total.
The Reds were probably my preseason pick to take the division until Matt McLain’s shoulder exploded, TJ Friedl folded his wrist in half, and Noelvi Marte got a 80-game sussy for being THAT COOOOOL. The Reds are lucky they play with the Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals, because they could still realistically take this division. Tyler Stephenson won’t be as bad as he was last year, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will bash 25+ homers. The Reds were built to be league average with upside throughout their lineup, but McLain going down put a damper on that build and the team is going to have to roll with Jonathan India at second. India is a fine hitter, but not has good as McLain, and let’s not forget that his defense is some of the worst in the league.
A lot of these Reds rookie sensations will be marred with their high strikeout rate. Stuart Fairchild will get some reps out in center, but most of our attention will be on Will Benson who posted a .863 OPS last season but a 31.3% K rate. There’s a lot of upside to the Reds but there’s also a pretty steep cliff to the floor.
The Reds are projected to have the 10th best starting staff in the bigs, who surprisingly made it through spring relatively unscathed–Nick Lodolo was sidelined with a left calf injury, but will be back in early April. Hunter Greene will strike out 230 guys this season, Frankie Montas will have a bounceback year, and Andrew Abbott will post a 120 ERA+. The Reds bullpen is fairly pedestrian, with two guys (Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone) returning from Tommy John. Antone still generates swings-and-misses, but Sims has been struggling to stop issuing free passes. Again, the Reds can be good or really bad.
The Cubs did shit this offseason and they’re, currently, my front-runners for the division. Cody Bellinger had a resurgence, but was also bolstered by some favorable luck. His contact profile suggests he overperformed a bit, but I doubt the Cubs give much of a shit about him replicating an .881 OPS again, and would be happy with .750 to .800, which most projections are putting him between. Seiya Suzuki will be an all-star this year and I’m gambling that he goes for about 30 homers with another .840+ OPS. Michael Busch will finally get his crack at first and the Cubs will have the best up-the-middle defense in baseball again (Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner will win back-to-back gold gloves). The freshly poached Craig Counsell will play Christopher Morel at third so he can get his bat in the lineup.
Pitching-wise the Cubs have two legit starters in Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. Imanaga gave up 8 runs through 12 innings this spring, but struck out 25 guys and walked only 3. He’ll probably give up a shit ton of homers with his flyball track record, but I see him being pretty good regardless. Kyle Hendricks is still here so expect him to shutout the Cardinals twice a year and have a follow-up start where he gives up 10 runs on 10 hits with no walks and everyone jerks him off for being gritty and giving his team a chance and making the other guys earn it and blah blah blah. Drew Smyly can spot start but the rest of the rotation goes to Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks, who’re filling in for the injured Jameson Taillon. The Cubs bullpen is lefty heavy and I hope they fucking suck.
Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs finishing 2nd, about a game behind the…
THE CARDINALS
Man, where do we begin. This team is largely intact from last year after they endured the organization’s first 90-loss season since 1990.
The team that wins this shitty-ass division will do so with less than 85 wins. Right now PECOTA has the Cardinals doing that with an 84-78 record.
I don’t want to be an alarmist or anything, but does it feel like this team is playoff caliber? Not in a win-the-division kind of way. Half the fucking league could win the NL Central by five games. But are the Cardinals capable of winning anything beyond the division?
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This team made a promise to revamp the pitching staff and they did that. Now did they do a good job? John Mozeliak added a ton of depth and shape (sweeper joke) to the bullpen, trading Tyler O’Neill for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Robertson didn’t crack the Opening Day roster because of a poor spring, but he’ll be up eventually. Andre Pallante added a “death ball” or whatever the fuck he wants to call a power curve–not to sound like a boomer, but I genuinely am hating the names we’re coming up for pitches now. Pallante posted a decent 105 Stuff+ and he generated more swing-and-miss into his game. Riley O’Brien, who was picked up for cash, was nasty with his high 90s sinker and sweeper and I predicted he’d crack the roster easily on the podcast. Mo also traded Richie Palacios, whom I’m sure Cards fans will be completely normal about, for Andrew Kittredge who posted a fine spring and will likely bridge some high-leverage innings to Helsley. Keynan Middleton is hurt but I’m sure he’ll be fine. Rule-5 pick Ryan Fernandez cracked the team despite being meh in Jupiter, and the rest of the rotation rounds out with mainstays Gio, Helsley, and Jojo Romero.
This bullpen, at worst, will be middle of the pack. At best it will be fringe top-10, maybe barely top 10. It’s a decent bullpen. There’s even depth to it. Good job, Mo, gold star.
Now for the rest of the pitching.
The Cardinals starting staff last year was putrid. A 5.08 ERA and a 4.61 FIP. They sucked. They had the second worst strikeout rate at 17.4% and a defense that was bottom 10 at best. You can’t live in this league with that relationship. So John Mozeliak went to the drawing board to redo his starting staff and the results are…mixed to say the least.
The Good™: The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to 3 years. Gray is an ace and was AL Cy Young runner-up last year. He has persistent injuries with his hamstring, which he suffered in Spring and will keep him sidelined for a couple weeks into the season. But when Sonny is on he is fucking on, JACK. He strikes out about a quarter of the guys he faces and has a groundball rate near 50%. Groundballs and strikeouts, what’s not to love! You definitely don’t want guys hitting the ball in the air against OUR OUTFIELD. Gray is 34 and is thus OLD AS FUCK. I mean have you seen this dude’s hairline lately?
That was rude. I am sorry. Allow me to apologize to Sonny Gray and his $75 million contract. If I had that money I’d buy Joe Buck’s hair plugs.
Gray could very well regress, but he’ll be pitching in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark and the hope is that the Cardinals are less of a sieve as they were last year defensively. I think the hammy will nag him all year, and honestly we’ll probably be lucky if we get 150+ innings from him this year.
Prior to Gray the Cardinals picked up two other pitchers! AL hits leader Kyle Gibson and MLB home runs leader Lance Lynn. Gibby and Lynn got one year deals with a club option totaling $24 million. Both pitchers are 36 years old. Both pitchers weren’t particularly good in Spring Training, but hey Lance Lynn showed up in a pink Bronco so that’s…something!
There were far better pitchers available for the Cardinals to pick up. It’s not a problem that they grabbed one of these guys, but that they took both of them. Seth Lugo, James Paxton, Kenta Maeda, and even Eduardo Rodriguez were all within reach. Considering that Jordan Montgomery signed for $25 million I’m left wondering “hey, would Monty and maybe Liberatore/Thompson provided as much value as Gibson and Lynn?”
Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas round out the rotation. Matz is the youngest at 32 and Mikolas is 35. The average age of this starting rotation is almost 35 years old. This season is going to be GREEEEAAAAAT.
Gray is currently hurt and Zack Thompson is slotted in his place. Thompson has a big curve and a fastball that’s lively enough to keep guys honest. He’s realistically leapfrogged Liberatore to be next-man up when it comes to young pitching. Libs is destined for the bullpen. It’s sad. Meanwhile when Sonny Gray comes back you can expect Thompson to go back to the ‘pen and be an emergency starter while everyone but Sonny pitches agonizing baseball for most of the season. BUT HEY at least we have innings eaters and veteran leadership!
Two things: innings don’t mean fuck all like they used to. Tampa Bay had the third highest fWAR among starting pitchers and the fifth fewest amount of innings. Eating innings doesn’t mean a goddamn thing if those innings suck. Tampa starters carried the 2nd highest average fastball velocity and the second highest K% in the league, there might be something there to copy and make your own! But sure, I can’t wait to watch Lance Lynn throw 6 innings of 5-run ball because that’s better for our bullpen than maybe one less inning and 3 fewer runs, great system we’re gonna have here I can’t fucking wait.
Lynn shouldn’t be as awful as last year. He languished in a dysfunctional White Sox organization that completely fell apart and sold off. His numbers improved with the Dodgers and then exploded comically when he gave up 4 bombs in game 3 of the NLDS.
BUT LISTEN TO ME CARDINALS FANS: BRONCO. BRRROOOOONNNCCCOOOOO.
This starting corps is projected to be low-mid to bottom 10. You can expect that. Miles Mikolas will say something stupid–probably about wanting to hunt trans people–Steven Matz will probably get hurt like he has been, and both Gibson and Lynn will surrender a combined 220 runs but also pitch about 400 innings BECAUSE THEY’RE DOGS A-ROOOOOO!!!
Oh and the “leadership” things. Jesus Christ.
The Cardinals should have a decent offense. Should. MVP Paul Goldschmidt and MVP finalist Nolan Arenado were not that good compared to their standards last year. They’re gonna be better but I highly doubt they’ll be bashing out 5 WAR seasons again. Goldy’s 36 and Nolan will be 33. Paul beat back father time with his ’22 MVP run, but that doesn’t happen a lot. I figure Arenado will return to his 30 homer clip and post an OPS north of .800, and Goldy will deliver 25+ bombs and similar metrics like last year. They should have all the time in the world to focus on their own playing abilities since the organization bent ass over dick to bring in guys who can lead.
Fuckin’ leadership. What a joke. If there’s a stain on their legacy it’s this stupid shit. Well that and the covid denialism, they should never live that down. Goldy and Nolan wanted some voices in the clubhouse because the young guys kinda ruled the roost and no one was bothered enough to teach the ways of “going about your business” or whatever. The Cardinals certainly didn’t lack for guys approaching/over their 30s last season, as well as guys with multiple years of MLB service time. So forgive me if I don’t buy that.
Listen, I get that it’s not in a contract and I’m pro-players every step of the way. But if you’re making MVP-money with over 8 years in the bigs you should be able to coach Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn on how to fold their clothes and wipe their tushies.
Instead we have a starting rotation that is going to die before July, and roster spots filled up with VETERAN LEADERSHIP guys like Matt Carpenter (.641 OPS in ‘23) and Brandon Crawford (.587 OPS in ‘23). We gotta help Nolan and Goldy, guys. Talking to teammates is very hard, I mean what if they talk to me about wearing a mask?
Anyway, the outfield is a mess because Tommy Edman got surgery on his wrist AFTER the season, because for some reason we couldn’t shut him down sooner like we did with Donovan. Edman has been rife with setbacks in his recovery, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see him until June. Lars Nootbaar, our best outfielder mind you, injured himself in the most Lars Nootbaar fashion and has fractured ribs–my hot take on him remains that he’ll fail to reach 100 games played this year–and Dylan Carlson, who was having an excellent spring, got upended on a collision with Jordan Walker that left him with an AC joint sprain, the timetable on that being 6-8 weeks. This is fucking awesome, I can’t wait for this season.
Meanwhile Richie Palacios made Tampa’s roster and I’m sure we’re all going to be normal about that. The Cardinals fucked up Edman’s recovery and they fucked up Carlson, who was going to be relegated as the 4th outfielder but had a path to some kind of redemption until Jordan Walker chop blocked him. This is in no way a condemnation of Walker, but rather the developmental missteps the Cards took in rushing him to the majors at a position he has little experience at. You play with fire you get burnt.
Thank God Jordan Walker is fine. He’ll likely be awesome this season as his ceiling stretches into the stratosphere. His projections have him around an .800 OPS but I think he eclipses that–he’s bulked up, it’s hard to see him not getting past that number after he smashes 80 home runs before the ASB. His defense will suck but at a level less than last year. He’s going to be fine, he’s going to be great, but we’re in for another season of 110 piss missiles off his bat and bad route running on shots to the gap.
Victor Scott II will start Opening Day in center field. Victor had a great Spring Training but underneath that .317 average is a sub .400 slugging and the realization that Vic had a very low exit velocity (86.1 mph) and sweetspot (17.6%). His speed covers deficiencies in his bat, and he really should be in AAA developing that swing instead of being here and, likely, being asked to bunt or hit the ball on the ground. We’re gonna fuck this kid up too.
Scott has blistering speed and draws comparisons to a faster, more defensively complete Harrison Bader. If he posts anything around a .700 OPS he’s staying for good this year. Actually screw that, if he has an OBP over .340 I’ll be over the moon, he’ll steal 70 bases and score 80+ runs with that.
Utility wizard Brendan Donovan will slot out in left field, along with Alec Burleson and Michael Siani. Donny’s back after having his elbow repaired and I honestly don’t care too much about his defense, I just want him to get on base. Burleson is hoping to show that his batting metrics last year were a product of bad luck. He did enough to get on the roster and he fucking murdered the ball in Florida (.375/.446/.542). Siani is here because half our outfield died and this organization wasn’t smart enough to consider having more outfielders than first baseman.
Masyn Winn will get a full season, or at least a shot at one. Winn didn’t impress in his call-up last year, but who cares. He’s awesome. He’s backed up by Brandon Crawford who will be here in a mentor role for him. I don’t expect much from Winn offensively, and honestly if he has around a .700 OPS with double digit homers I’ll shit myself like a fat happy baby. I mainly want his defense and arm to shine.
Behind the dish Willson Contreras returns after a year so bad I’m surprised he didn’t ask for his release. He was scapegoated and tossed under the bus by management and his own pitchers. Willson got off to a slow start too but once he heated up he was one of the best hitters in the league from July until the end of the year. Willy Bombs will be a top-10 hitting catcher again, and this time he’s backed up by his potential heir-to-be Ivan Herrera. Ivan hit some bombs in the Caribbean Series and ripped a .953 OPS in Spring. He is here and will split time 40/60 with Willson, and he’s going to be good.
verdict
There’s a wide range of emotions from myself and the boys on this team. Josh sees the Cards winning the division and being around 90 wins. Ryan says 89 wins and Nik is entrenched that they’ll perform worse than last year.
Me personally, this team is not as exciting as last season. This team is roughly the same. Better defense, same offense. The bullpen is an upgrade and the starting staff is the same or worse. Currently, Jordan Hicks electrified Spring Training with the Giants featuring a four-pitch arsenal and punching 28 out in 17 innings. Jack Flaherty was throwing hard and punching tickets too. Ya ever just think it’s not the players sometimes?
The Cardinals are trying to change their methodology and value system for starting pitching. Chaim Bloom is here, albeit part-time. They brought in guys with…better, I guess, swing and miss stuff. The Cards are excellent at developing everyday baseball players, easily a top-5 organization at that, but pitching is…well.
In the minors we have Tink Hence who had an awful season last year. He has a high ceiling and a ton of talent and I’m just waiting for the day we decide to turn him into a middle reliever. Cooper Hjerpe had elbow surgery and was touching 93 mph this spring. Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevey are next in line but none of those guys are particularly exciting in what they have to offer. After that we have, who? Ian Bedell, Max Rajcic, Adam Kloffenstein, and Connor Thomas, all fine pitchers but I wouldn’t picture them as MLB anchors.
This season is going to suck for everyone in the NL Central–well, except Pirates fans. The Cardinals start their April off on the road against the Dodgers. They play them, the Padres, Marlins, Phillies and Diamondbacks until they finally get a mark against the Athletics. They have two series all month against teams I would say are not as good as them (Oakland and the Mets). They won’t have Sonny Gray and two-thirds of their projected outfield to start. Folks, we may be fucked early on. If they enter May 14-16 I’ll take that as a huge moral victory.
By my assessment, I don’t have the confidence to picture this team surpassing 85 wins, and I think their window is somewhere between 78-83 victories. Baseball Prospectus has them at about 84 wins and taking the division over the Cubs. It’s anyone’s race in the NL Central, but I see the Cards and the Cubs as the frontrunners, with the Cards having way more volatility than Chicago. But baseball is a very stupid sport and the Cards could win 18 games through April. They could win 90 games, they certainly have the offensive talent to do so. And so do the Pirates, Reds, Brewers, and Cubs, you get the picture.
The days of ruling the NL Central like royalty are gone. The Cardinals are relegated to the ranks like the rest of middle-market midwestern teams crying poverty. If there ever was an uncertain year it’s this one, and it’s staring back at us. With Mozeliak set to step down after 2025, we’re witnessing the end of something in St. Louis. I’m hoping what comes after is not more of the same.
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