by Tom
I spent the entire winter trying to get better.
I worked in St. Louis from October until the end of the year. After working eight to ten hours in Ellisville or Manchester I’d head back to my extended stay in Maryland Heights. I had it pretty easy, aside from the traffic and occasional long days; I worked four days a week in October and November, electing for 5 days in December. I also brought my cat, Biscuit, with me.
It was a long time being away from Cape. My roommate noticed the absence and so did I. I figured I’d go out more into the city; go catch a Blues game or hit up one of the comedy or music open mics. I was thinking maybe I could get that creative spark again, start writing jokes or goofy songs. My best friends live in St. Louis, and a couple years ago we wrote comedy-musicals and performed them in the area.
But that didn’t happen. The best laid plans of mice and men and what not. I didn’t leave the hotel much, didn’t see my friends as often as I would have liked, and couldn’t trigger that Eureka spark in my brain. Most days began around 7:30 and ended at 5:30, other days I’d open and close a store for 11 hours; after every shift all I wanted to do was go back to the shack, turn the AC down, and crawl in bed. I didn’t have the energy to write comedy or music.
Depression is a bitch, man. I’ve long contended with it since I was a teenager, and didn’t really come to grips with it until my mid-20s. For a long time I could monitor its influence, hell I exploited it even to make some good art. I thought I could be one of these profound artistic sufferers, but really it just made me self-centered, unattractive, and conceited. Nowadays it makes me isolated, which I guess is maybe a sign of improvement.
I wrote a lot though. I punched out Part 1 to our 1982 series, which feels like ten years ago at this point. I read and cataloged and notated and copied and pasted through an autobiography and listless Post-Dispatch articles from the 1950s-on. I was lucky that this is what kept me going, along with my stupid little cat. Honestly I would have left for Cape if I didn’t drag her with me.
Writing can be a lot of things, it can be like releasing the catch on a pressure valve, it could be cathartic or like a hot cup of coffee. Sometimes I’d write in spurts, a few pages in a session, but most days I’d hardly write at all–sometimes never. On really good days I’d be thumbing my way through Whitey Herzog’s autobiography and mashing notes in an outline, looking for through-lines and parallels–or anything feature-y–my brain, for that time at least, firing on all cylinders telling myself and my body that this is what we’re doing today, that we’re going to see this through.
I have a hundred projects I’ve always started and failed to finish. I have this massive piece about Paul Goldschmidt I’ve been adding to for about a year, another cataloging every single Adam Wainwright win, and a 7,000 word and counting script on Jack Flaherty. Years before I would never see any of these through, and I still might, but I think I got just enough to finish them.
Anyway, it’s good to be back home watching baseball.
Projections
Speaking of failed projects, Ryan and I tried to put together a huge “Worst Fans Preview” but couldn’t really make the time to broaden it into what we wanted it to be. No matter, we can still do a preview of what we think will happen.
The Braves are gonna win 95+ games and the NL East, the Mets will capture the Wild Card despite Pete Alonso inevitably blowing out his knee trying to suplex Brandon Nimmo in a bounce house. The Phillies finish 3rd and capture the 2nd Wild Card spot. The Marlins will finish ahead of the Nats who will still probably lose a thousand games but Keibert Ruiz will be better and Josiah Grey will post a 2.0 fWAR season.
The NL West will have the Padres finally dethroning the Dodgers, who will capture the final Wild Card spot. The Giants will be better than .500 even though they shouldn’t be, the Diamondbacks will be right around .500 and the Rockies will continue to wallow in subterranean mediocrity as they figure out who else they want to overpay and trade for Kohl’s Cash.
The AL East will see both the Yankees and Blue Jays win around 95 games. I’ll go with Toronto capturing the division for no other reason than Vladdy G and Bo Bichette are going to have far better years than they did last season–and that the Yankees are going to find themselves with similar struggles unless Aaron Judge hits 80 home runs. Tampa will finish above .500, the Orioles will be around that, and the Red Sox will be buried in the AL East crawlspace where they’ve always belonged.
The AL Central is where my hottest take will come. The White Sox are going to win a crowded AL Central, they underperformed so poorly last season that I can’t imagine them not winning 85+ games with a healthy Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert, and Tim Anderson. Also their rotation bolsters elite swing and miss stuff, and if all those arms hold up for even three-quarters of a season they should be able to outlast whatever the Twins and Guardians throw at them. The only question mark for me is Mike Clevinger who will probably be cleared by MLB for kicking puppies, an act I’m confident he has done and continues to do along with other sinister shit.
Speaking of such, the Twins finish second and secure the 2nd Wild Card berth but not before Carlos Correa’s ankle gives all of Minnesota radiation sickness. The penny-pinching Guardians will finish 3rd, followed by a slightly improved Tigers–who will enjoy a bittersweet farewell tour for Miggy–and the Bobby Witt Jr. led Royals who will perform so badly it’ll vindicate Mike Matheny.
The AL West! Ah my favorite memes come from here. PECOTA and I agree the Astros win the division, but they also have the Angels finishing 2nd with a 53.1% chance to make the postseason. Los Angeles did a lot of this offseason, like teasing their fanbase that Arte Moreno may sell the team only to pull the rug out and watch them slip and crack their skulls. It’s got to be the best part of being a billionaire, being so reviled by the public that they cheer for your departure only to tell them sike as you snap a baby goat’s neck in front of them.
The Angels should be good on paper, they have the 2 best players in the game and they’ve added to that, but this is LA after all, and they were supposed to be good last year and the year before that and so on and so on. They’re an incredible story of futility and dashed hopes, Angels fans probably think you’re gaslighting them when you wish them happy birthday.
Anyway, the Mariners will finish second and grab the last playoff spot, the Angels will probably finish 80-81 or some shit and face war crime charges for wasting the career of Mike Trout and the first six years of Shohei Ohtani. I am committed to my meme that the Rangers and Angels are one in the same, and that they’ve spent a shit ton of money to just win 78 games and finish fourth, and nobody cares about the Athletics.
NL Central
The NL Central features two of the wealthiest teams in the league in the Cardinals and Cubs. The Cards wooed Willson Contreras away from their division rival, and the Cubs responded by turning around and spending a ton of money in free agency.
In fact, much to the Cardinals chagrin, the Cubbies spent a lot of time bringing guys in. First there’s the big signings of Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger, the former coming off a gold glove and MVP-esque season, the latter a former MVP who has struggled immensely the last two seasons posting an atrocious .611 OPS across 239 games. Second, the Cubs signed a ton of depth guys in Mike Tauchmann, Tucker Barnhart, Luis Torrens, Edwin Rios, Brad Boxberger, and Michael Fulmer. And third, they made sure to sign a transphobe in Ben DeLuzio.
The Cubs also gobbled up Eric Hosmer on the cheap for league minimum, and right-handed gap bat Trey Mancini. Hosmer sucks and has always sucked, but he’ll play first and get some ABs against righties while Mancini spells, DHs, and plays both corner outfield positions.
Even though they spent a lot of money revamping their offense and bullpen, a lot still needs to go right for the Cubs to be competitive this season. They need Kyle Hendricks to return to his past self and be healthy–which is hard, as Hendricks has only begun to throw light bullpen sessions after recovering from a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder–and newcomer Jameson Taillon to replicate his final year with the Yanks–and that’s a fairly low bar. Justin Steele carried a 5.40 ERA into June, but his metrics suggested he was a little snake-bitten and sure enough in his final 14 starts he posted a 2.05 ERA to go along with 79 innings and 80 punch-outs. Drew Smyly re-signed in the offseason after a respectable season that saw him lose a couple months to an oblique injury.
Oh and they also need Marcus Stroman not to defend anti-semitism, that’d be good.
So far in Spring Training only Stro and late 2022 call-up Hayden Wesneski have shone–Wesneski should break camp as a back-end starter or a reliever. Smyly and Taillon are hovering over a 5.00 ERA and have given up an 8 combined homers in 25 ⅔ innings.
Hosmer is batting .275 with a .325 slugging so HE’S IN MIDSEASON FORM. The Cubs offense is having a good Spring in general except for new arrival Dansby Swanson who has 3 goddamn hits in 46 plate appearances. Oh man, those are Knizner numbers, champ, you gotta pump those up!
Christopher Morel has 4 taters and an .876 OPS through 20games, he’s a menace along with Ian Happ who’ll bash 20 homers and maybe win another gold glove. Mancini is beating the shit out of the ball. Patrick Wisdom’s feast or famine swings are looking good so far and Cody Bellinger is, well, leaving where he left off. He finished Spring with a sub .200 average and a .683 OPS, so the pump is definitely primed for a career resurgence.
PECOTA projects the Cubs scoring a lot of runs, but also giving up a ton. I’m inclined to agree with them. The 76-86 mark seems fair, although I would give Chicago’s WINdow between 75-80 wins, and maybe more if a lot goes right.
Speaking of needing things to go right, there’s the Milwaukee Brewers who seem destined to alienate their best pitcher by talking shit on him in arbitration hearings. Corbin Burnes you are a New York Yankee!
The penny-pinching Brewers traded their best outfielder in Hunter Renfroe because he was arbitration eligible, a hearing that he won against his new team in the Los Angeles Angels. What a petty, bullshit franchise that couldn’t be bothered to pay a deserving outfielder $10 million, or their Cy Young winning pitcher an extra $740,000. The Brewers were owned by the Selig family when they sucked over $290 million in public money to build American Family Field, so being a parasite is nothing new to this organization.
They traded away Kolten Wong, Renfroe, let Andrew McCutchen, Brad Boxberger, and Taylor Rogers walk. You know Taylor Rogers, the fucking guy they traded their all-star closer for mid-season? They were also part of the three-team trade carousel that saw Sean Murphy land in Atlanta. The Brewers sent Esteury Ruiz to the A’s and got all-star catcher William Contreras, who is just thrilled to be here.
How thrilled are we talking? Well Contreras finished with a .513 OPS in Spring Training, and is two years away from arbitration. The Braves and Brewers front offices should be shot for this.
Offensive stalwart Willy Adames slashed .200/.200/.286 in Florida, that’s right not one goddamn walk. I admire the Javy Baez approach at the dish. Luke Voit signed an MiLC–again, the Brewers management should be thrown in front of a garbage truck–and is, surprise, having a great Spring. Rowdy Tellez is back from the WBC and is hitting, newcomers in the Kolten Wong trade Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro played well. Toro will play everywhere and do everything, Winker will DH and kill Cardinals pitching. I am told that Christian Yelich is back, baby and his .754 OPS and 2 homers suggest, eh, not really? Yelich faced the highest opponent quality this Spring, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll have a resurgence that mirrors his 2019 season. ZIPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him between 16-21 homers, and his OPS between .740 and .770. As much as I hate Christian Yelich because he’s a Brewer, it’s sort of sad that he’s “regressed” into a perfectly serviceable outfielder and will get dunked on the rest of his career for it.
Anyway, the Brewers are going to pitch their asses off, win a lot of close games, overuse their bullpen, continue to alienate their best players, and finish second in the division. Their starting rotation is going to be solid with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and Lauer. Janson Junk, the guy included in the Renfroe trade, was terrible this Spring. Lauer was lit up for 11 runs through 7 ⅔ innings including 13 hits, Burnes looked good, Woodruff and Peralta were meh but have the swing and miss stuff going. Should any of those guys falter they have Adrian Houser lurking to hop in and gobble some innings. Meanwhile their bullpen has seen better days this Spring, but at least they have Devin Williams.
It’ll come down to the Brewers and Cardinals for the NL Central crown. PECOTA has Milwaukee winning the division by a game with 87 wins, but I have very little faith in them to actually do that. The Brewers pitching staff is good but very malleable, last season they had the 19th ranked bullpen by fWAR, and we all know how much Craig Counsell likes to use his ‘pen. Burnes and Woodruff should be a lock, and Peralta too if he can stay healthy–the 27 year-old has yet to pitch 150 innings in his career. It’ll all come down to that offense, which I don’t have much faith in.
We’re not going to talk about Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. They’re owned by terrible people, they’re going to be terrible this season. I feel sorry for Hunter Greene, O’Neil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Jonathan India, and Joey Votto.
Cardinals, our little treat
We got Willson Contreras.
That’s it. We let Quintana, Reyes, and Dickerson walk, we picked up Wilking Rodriguez off waivers from the Yankees, signed Andrew Suarez to a depth contract, and purchased Anthony Misiewicz from the Royals right after we DFA’d the guy he’d replace on the 40-man’s birthday.
This team is not much different than the one who won 93 games last season. And you can expect about as much. Winning is not a prerogative for the DeWitts, there’s plenty of other shit to worry about.
Like developing more residential around Ballpark Village. The Cards finished phase 2 of development by building the 29 story One Cardinal Way Tower along with an office building and various retail stores. The project cost was $260 million; immediately after opening in 2020 at rents that are now $1,500, One Cardinal Way is at near capacity.
So we’re likely to get more residential towers around the stadium. In addition to all that Ballpark Village is going to become more of a mixed district, blending towering residential apartments with medium density commercial ventures. The DeWitts have said as much as they plan on completing this in the next 3 to 6 years.
Fun thing is they own the whole goddamn thing. They’ll get tax cuts to do all this because St. Louis is starved for any kind of development in their already waning downtown area. It feeds into this image that, despite all baseball owners being evil, the Cardinals have one of the good ones. Sure, that’s neat, but maybe consider that this level of capital and influence should be scrutinized, I mean the DeWitts played a role in picking the city’s next police chief, and we all know about their political donations to republicans. They’ve successfully isolated themselves from meaningful public criticism by doing this all themselves, and a city as starved as St. Louis is more than happy to go along with it, including their press. Someone should really do a story about that, oh well!
Anyway, now that you briefly know the DeWitts priorities may interfere with other things than paying top dollar for a baseball team, the Cardinals are going to win the division, barring some sort of disaster.
That disaster won’t be at the expense of the offense, which is projected to carry above league average hitters throughout their lineup. PECOTA has the Cards pegged to be the 4th best offense in the NL by runs scored and 5th best in the MLB. Most Cards fans will say that’s sacrilege, but I say that’s probably about right.
Paul Goldschmidt had a fine WBC, but I highly doubt he’ll outhit his metrics like he did last season to win the NL MVP. He’s also 35 years old, and while I would definitely argue he’s just built different, age is going to catch up to him eventually. Marcel has Goldy posting a .872 OPS with a .291 average, PECOTA an .807 OPS, ZIPS has him at 26 bombs and a .842 OPS, and Steamer 29 dingers with an .842 OPS. I don’t buy into PECOTA, but I’d probably say Goldy’s going to hover between .850 and .900.
Or not. He’s beat the shit out of the ball this Spring.
You can file similar concerns for Nolan Arenado with the same result. How about this, Goldy and Nolan aren’t done until they’re done. We should expect nothing less from them.
Around the rest of the diamond the Cards will send Tommy Edman to be their everyday shortstop, with Brendan Donovan at second base. Nolan Gorman did more than enough to bash his way onto the Opening Day roster, so I’d be surprised if the Cardinals sent him down at all this season. Top prospect Masyn Winn posted an .869 OPS in Spring, and had Cards Twitter clamoring for his call-up after pariah Paul Dejong suffered an injury setback that will shelve him past Opening Day.
If you want the honest truth, Winn going down is good, because it would be a waste to not have him up here getting everyday at-bats.
And I would have said the same for Jordan Walker, in fact I had 4 paragraphs talking about that, but the motherfucker decided he’d end up on the Opening Day roster, so all I’ll say is that Jordan Walker has earned his right to be where he is. There’s still a lot he needs to improve on, and it feels that the Cardinals are rushing his promotion before he’s fully developed, and my concern is that the 4 for 29 skid he had after tweaking his shoulder was just a slump, and that he’ll adjust well to big league pitching, especially breaking pitches away. Walker drew one walk all of Spring, and while his exit velocity was a decent 90.4, his launch angle of -1.1 needs to be higher. An extra 10 degrees of separation like that is often the difference between hitting the ball like Christian Yelich–sorry–or Aaron Judge.
It’s hard to imagine what this outfield will shape into. O’Neill blistered the ball in the WBC but was less impressive in limited at-bats in Florida–doesn’t really matter, I know. International sensation Lars Nootbaar is a lock, and Dylan Carlson, with help from his 4,000 calorie diet, has slugged .489 in 53 plate appearances in Spring. With three guys who have shown they can hit at the MLB level, it’s hard imagining Walker usurping one of them, but here we are.
But that creates a new problem: Is it really worth it to have Jordan Walker on this roster if he’s not going to get full-time at-bats? Wouldn’t it be better that he got in all the work he could before we open a spot for him in an impending trade?
The final roster spots went to Burleson and 33 year-old Taylor Motter, thanks to an injury to Paul Dejong and Kramer Robertson just not getting enough at-bats. Also Motter was good, he did earn his way.
Rotation-wise the Cardinals sport a very mid starting five. Their bullpen is also going to be mid. Adam Wainwright is on the IL with a groin strain that will sideline him for a few weeks. Waino’s velocity has been sitting in the mid 80s, a cause for concern, but he also pitched 8 innings of 2 run ball in the World Baseball Classic. This is Waino’s last go-around, and he’s 5 wins away from being the 3rd pitcher in Cardinal history to win 200 games with the team. His absence has created an opening for any of our depth pitchers to fill the void, and it looks like it’s going to be Jake Woodford who had the best Spring Training out of all our starters. Woody gave up 18 baserunners in 17 ⅔ innings, punching out 18 and walking 5.
Dakota Hudson has been sent down after giving up 21 baserunners in less than 8 innings and hopefully doesn’t come back up as a starter. Jack Flaherty is entering his final year looking to return to form and begin the season long discourse on if he’s going to be a Cardinal or go elsewhere. Jack has shown nothing but appreciation and gratitude for this organization and its fans. It’s a shame some have ostracized him because he took the bold stance that cops shouldn’t murder people. Jack had a meh Spring, and the same concerns from when he was healthy are creeping up; can he command the zone and pitch more efficiently?
Mikolas is back and looks sharp. As of writing this he got a two year extension which he definitely deserves. Steven Matz looks healthy and ready to go, he also had a great Spring. Jordan Montgomery rounds out a rotation that doesn’t have a proven ace or even a number 2 at that, but it’s a rotation that will not be a sieve.
Now the bullpen is another issue.
If this team didn’t have the defense it did last year, this bullpen would have imploded on its own asshole. I can’t functionally express to you how lucky they were.
For starters–and relievers–this team doesn’t strike anyone out. The rotation had the seventh lowest K% and the relief corps 4th. You have to strike guys out at this league, and beyond Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos this team ain’t doing that. Do we need to relive bringing Andre fucking Pallante in to a strikeout situation and getting exactly what we deserved?
You can say the Cards’ most pressing issue is the rotation, but I counter that the bullpen is needing some TLC. Defensively the Cards,at the very least, were a top 5 fielding team, any regression in that will see this pitching staff explode. And it’s hard to compensate for that when you’re too busy DFA’ing reinforcements who may fit that mold.
Chris Stratton isn’t going to mend this. Neither is Drew VerHagen or Pallante. Jordan Hicks can barely throw a strike and Wilking Rodriguez is on the IL. I love Zack Thompson, and while he’s been pretty good in Spring and in the 22 appearances he’s had at the MLB level, he hasn’t been able to rack up the Ks like he did in Memphis. And as much as I hate what the organization is going to do with him, it almost makes sense why they would take touted prospect Gordon Graceffo and turn him into a reliever. Then again the Cardinals could just not let their talented relievers walk.
Anyway we’re full circle now. PECOTA has the Cardinals finishing second in the division with 86 wins, but this offense and defense are too good. The pitching is going to be the biggest hiccup, and with more games outside of the division–a wrinkle the Cards struggled with last season–they’re going to need more than just luck and great D to bail them out. The hope is that a trade will manifest after a few months of seeing what we got. I personally hope so, a lot of our bench depth deserve MLB at-bats if not here somewhere else.
The Cards are going to win this division. The front office has a now-considered archaic formula for how they conduct baseball operations, with the goal of building a team to reach 90 wins. I give the Cards WINdow between 88-93 wins, I just don’t see the pitching being anything more than middle of the road at best.
Time for Some Unnecessary Cruelty
It feels like it’s been so long since I could be toxic. It’s so nice to be back. You’re probably reading this excited for baseball, I’m excited to be a little demon again.
The last ten years the Cards have opened the season inside their division 8 times. The other two seasons they faced NL East opponents. So it’s only right that this year we open 2023 by facing…the Toronto Blue Jays.
Jesus Christ. The fucking Blue Jays? The only thing Canada has going for it is universal healthcare; they suck at everything else. Wah wah our kids don’t die in school shootings wah wah our head of state only did a little black face, go fuck yourself with a broken bottle of Labatts, this country’s only good export were the first three seasons of Trailer Park Boys before they sold-out. The fact you guys produced Jordan Peterson and still let him run amok in public is grounds for an international tribunal.
And now these Letterkenny quoting hacks–not real art by the way–are exporting the fucking Toronto Blue Jays to my country and my state for OPENING FUCKING DAY. What is this shit? Last season we split a two game series against the Jays because our two best hitters decided to do their own research on vaccines–surprise, they were complete bullshit.
Think about that for a second. The potent and young lineup that is the Toronto Blue Jays couldn’t even beat a thousand year-old Adam Wainwright and a team missing half their offensive production. It’s like the Blue Jays were born to trip over their own dicks.
Oh and would you look at that, they choked an 8-1 lead at home against the Seattle Mariners, who hadn’t been to the playoffs since we decided to invade and leave Iraq and Afghanistan. THEY LOST TO A TEAM WHOSE PLAYOFF DROUGHT OUTLASTED AMERICAN IMPERIALISM. Total horseshit, and I have these clowns winning the AL East, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they somehow fucked that up and lost to a little league team managed by a dog in the ALDS.
The Blue Jays have made the postseason four times in the last eight years, you might think that’s par for the course for a normal MLB team until you realize that that’s the best run of baseball Toronto has had in over twenty fucking years. Why do you do this to yourself, Jays fans? I rather we play the fucking Pirates, at least they’re bad in a Scooby-Doo kind of way.
Fuck the Blue Jays and their old-ass dome. Fuck them and their stupid boring jerseys. Canadians love to point out how fat Americans are, but their only baseball mascot is a bird fatter than any of the other feathered mascots. Oh and fuck Blue Jays in general, a bunch of monogamous twats, they probably home school their kids and read them The Twelve Rules of Life as they shovel poutine into their gulping toothless orifices. Canada is America’s shitty hat, I hope Quebec finally rises up and pushes all you hogs over Niagara Falls with a Zamboni.
Enjoy Opening Day everyone!
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