By Tom
The St. Louis Cardinals clinched the National League Central last night after a 6-2 victory against their divisional foe Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals won the division behind some cunning trade acquisitions, MVP performances from their corner infielders, a career-resurgence in an aging Albert Pujols, and a soft second-half schedule–among other things that will be detailed in a further edition of SFS.
The Milwaukee Brewers lost their divisional lead due to a bullpen implosion, crisis of confidence, and a more formidable schedule that saw them play 8 of their next 17 series against teams with winning records. Against teams with sub .500 records they went 15-12, and 10-12 against teams with winning records. Milwaukee will now have to vy for a wild card spot as they currently sit 1.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies with 8.
Now that all the formalities are out of the way, let’s tell this organization to SUGG ITTTTTT.
If you’re going to talk shit, do so when there’s not 78 GAMES OF BASEBALL LEFT, fucking dorks.
The Brewers haven’t been awful insofar as the Cardinals have been that awesome in that span. Since this infamous tweet, the Brewers have played exactly .500 ball, whereas the Birds have gone 46-25. That mark is tied with the New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians–who also have enjoyed telling the White Sox to sugg it–for the 4th best mark. Milwaukee’s pedestrian mark of 35-35 puts them middle of the pack, however, since blowing their 3 game divisional lead, the Phillies and Padres have posted better records during that span as well.
While we have briefly dunked on the Brewers’ woes in past articles, it’s worth reiterating that Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t been that bad. Their .726 OPS since July 7th is 10th in the league, and their 103 wRC+ has been 14th. Their underperformance have come from their pitching corps.
Milwaukee’s team ERA is 18th in the MLB, and their FIP 22nd. To coincide with that stat, Milwaukee’s HR/9 is 4th worst in the majors, made worse from their home park being the 5th friendliest place for round-trippers. Their 3.8 fWAR since July 7th is also 24th in the league.
It’s not a one-sided affair, although Milwaukee’s bullpen–a strength in the past–is currently the 4th worst in the league by fWAR. While they have been top 10 in K/9 and BB/9, they struggle to keep the ball in the park and strand runners, as their 1.51 HR/9 is second worst and their LOB% tied for 10th. During this span they are 18 for 35 in save opportunities, with their 17 blown saves leading the league.
The starting rotation hasn’t fared much better, ranking 21st in fWAR. Milwaukee’s electric starters–plagued by injuries this year–rank top 10 in K/9, but have the 2nd worst BB/9 and 18th best HR/9–paced by Eric Lauer’s 27 long-balls, 4th highest in the league despite not pitching enough to qualify for an ERA title. The starting ERA is middle of the road at 16th along with a FIP that is only slightly worse at 13th. What may be most concerning, and possibly a further explanation for the bullpen’s struggles, is that Milwaukee’s starters have hurled 359 innings in that span, 6th worst in the majors.
This has probably been spoken ad nauseam, but the Cardinals offensive and pitching metrics are quite the opposite, it’s mainly why they’re not eating a bucket of shit for a twitter tweet sent barely halfway through the season. Cardinals hitters have posted the 3rd highest fWAR, 2nd highest OPS and wRC+, and 4th most homers and runs scored. Cardinals starters pitched the 7th most amount of innings, posting a respectable 6.4 fWAR–good enough for 11th in the league. Cardinals starters have struggled to strike out hitters–their 6.87 K/9 is 3rd worst in the league since July 7th–but they have offset that by posting a league best HR/9 and 11th BB/9.
St. Louis’s bullpen has been more meh during this time frame; their 1.1 fWAR is 20th in the league, but more dependable than Milwaukee’s. Their low K rate is offset by their average ability to limit walks and home runs. Their FIP and ERA is lower than the Brewers by half a run, their LOB% better by 3 percentage points, and they’ve blown 11 fewer saves–St. Louis is 18 for 24 in save opportunities, their blown saves rank 3rd best in the league behind the Mets and Orioles. The Cardinals bullpen employs a bend don’t break strategy that may catch up to them, but they’ve pitched the 2nd fewest innings in the majors since July 7th. They’re typically well-rested, lucky, and used wisely.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone then, that a team with a competent offense is offset by an incompetent and overworked pitching staff. You might say that they cancel each other out even, and produce a mediocre division leader that lacked the firepower to maintain and expand a 3 game lead. The Cardinals have sported an excellent–top 3 even–offense, good starting rotation, and a mediocre, albeit competent, bullpen. Milwaukee struggled to seize the initiative in the division, posting a 25-27 record in August and September. They were 2-7 in one-run games against bottom feeders like Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cincinnati, Chicago, and Arizona.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, weathered a tough schedule early on and has since feasted on their weak divisional foes, posting a 36-17 mark the last two months. The Brewers alienated their players, and fans, by shipping off a struggling Josh Hader for another struggling closer, drawing the ire from their players at how expendable they are. They are posting the same offensive numbers as they did last season, except this time their pitching staff lacks the ability to save them in close games against the league’s worst.
They have no one to blame but themselves, and–if they can’t now maybe they will later–hopefully they can hear all this from 7.5 games back and 8 to go.
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